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水资源短缺风险管理研究

发布时间:2018-10-23 17:28
【摘要】: 水资源短缺问题越来越成为制约社会经济发展和影响社会稳定的重要因素之一,这种现象在我国北方地区尤为突出。水资源是否短缺是受供给和需求两个主要因素影响,当供给不能满足用水需求时,就会出现水资源短缺风险。受降雨、径流及其它各种随机因素的影响,供水和需水都会不同程度地存在许多不确定性因素,因此,我国大多数地区出现水资源短缺风险是必然的。如何缓解或避免由于缺水风险所造成的国民经济损失,一直是众多学者关注的问题,并为此开展过大量的研究工作,业已取得了许多有价值的研究成果。本研究在继承已有研究成果的基础上,以首都圈(京、津地区)为例,综合运用水资源工程、风险分析理论、系统工程、概率论、模糊数学、计算数学等相关专业知识,对区域水资源短缺风险管理的理论与方法进行了系统研究,本文特色在于对风险分析理论的系统化、实用化和理论联系实际方面贡献,主要研究内容涵盖如下方面: (1)对水资源风险的定义进行了详细阐述,建立了水资源系统可靠性和风险系统框架,构建并描述了水资源风险的性能指标,对水资源系统的风险属性和风险特性等进行了分析。 (2)在系统描述风险识别原理和方法的基础上,对首都圈水资源系统所面临的水资源短缺风险进行了系统识别,为便于明晰水资源风险因子间的复杂关系,建立了水资源风险因素的影响图概念模型。 (3)依据水资源系统风险分析方法,结合水资源供需分析模型,提出了具有大型水库群的区域供用水系统风险分析模型。该模型综合模拟方法和优化方法的优 点,在对区域供用水系统进行模拟的同时,采用年最大供水量为目标函数对水资源 系统进行长系列的供需分析,然后统计区域水资源系统的缺水量及其概率分布,同 时用水资源系统的风险性能指标对水资源短缺风险进行描述。 (4)采用模糊综合评判模型对水资源短缺风险结果进行评价。利用水资源投 入产出宏观经济模型,评估了水资源短缺的经济损失。在分析水资源系统各性能指 标的基础上,提出了基于地理信息系统的水资源短缺风险的综合区划指标模型,并 对首都留区域的水资源短缺风险进行了综合区划。 (5)探讨了采取各种风险处理和调控的技术手段,对水资源系统风险性能指 标的影响程度。研究了各种风险管理技术手段对缓解或避免水资源短缺损失的贡献 率。并对水资源短缺风险调控的策略进行了探讨。 (6)利用系统理论中风险决策的理论与方法,,将水资源短缺风险决策分三个 层次,即单目标风险决策、效用期望值决策和多目标风险决策,详细研究了水资源 短缺风险的决策过程。 门)基于供给与需求均衡原理,从两个方面建立水资源短缺风险的最优控制 标准理论,一是针对整个区域水资源保障系统,二是在区域发生水资源短缺风险后 的调控准则。
[Abstract]:The shortage of water resources has become one of the important factors restricting the social and economic development and social stability, especially in northern China. The shortage of water resources is influenced by two main factors of supply and demand, and when the supply does not meet the demand of water, there will be a risk of water shortage. Due to the influence of rainfall, runoff and other random factors, there are many uncertainties in water supply and water demand. Therefore, the risk of water shortage in most parts of our country is inevitable. How to alleviate or avoid the loss of national economy caused by the risk of water shortage has always been a matter of concern to many scholars, and a lot of research work has been carried out for this purpose, and many valuable research results have been obtained. On the basis of inheriting the existing research results and taking the capital circle (Beijing and Tianjin) as an example, we comprehensively apply the relevant professional knowledge such as water resources engineering, risk analysis theory, system engineering, probability theory, fuzzy mathematics and calculation mathematics, etc. This paper systematically studies the theory and method of regional water resource shortage risk management, which is characterized by systematic, practical and theoretical contributions to the theory of risk analysis. (1) The definition of water resource risk is expounded in detail, the framework of water resource system reliability and risk system is established, the performance index of water resource risk is constructed and described, and the risk attribute and wind of water resource system are constructed. Based on the system description risk identification principle and method, the paper systematically identifies the water resource shortage risk faced by the capital circle water resources system, and provides a complex relationship between the risk factors of water resources. (3) According to the risk analysis method of water resources system, combined with the supply and demand of water resources. An analytical model is presented, and a large reservoir group is proposed. Risk analysis model for regional water supply system. The comprehensive simulation method and optimization method of the model are excellent. Point, at the same time as simulation of the water supply system in the area, adopt Year The Maximum Flow Rate is the Target Function to the Water Resources System Supply and demand analysis of governor series, then statistics of water shortage of regional water resources system and its almost rate distribution, same On the Risk Performance Index of Water Resources System at the Time of Time The risk of water shortage is described. (4) Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to evaluate the result of water shortage risk Price. Taking advantage of water resources into the output macro The economic loss of water resource shortage is evaluated by the economic model, and the performance of water resources system is analyzed. On the basis of the subject matter, the paper puts forward a comprehensive method based on GIS-based water resources shortage risk. zonation Index model and leave the capital The risk of water shortage in the region has been divided. By adopting the technical means of various risk treatment and regulation, the risk performance of water resources system is defined as follows: The degree of influence of the subject matter. The contribution of various risk management techniques to alleviating or avoiding the loss of water resource shortage is investigated. The paper discusses the strategy of water resource shortage risk regulation. (6) Utilization
【学位授予单位】:西安理工大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2003
【分类号】:TV213.4

【引证文献】

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1 梁小俊;楼章华;许月萍;王翠柏;屈国栋;;杭州城市引配水系统综合效益评价[J];中国水利;2012年06期

2 崔小红;王缔;;基于模糊多因素多层次评价模型的缺水度研究[J];数学的实践与认识;2012年03期

3 崔小红;王缔;金玉苹;;水资源短缺的一种综合加权评价模型[J];高等数学研究;2013年01期

相关会议论文 前1条

1 杜发兴;梁川;陈婷婷;;水资源短缺风险评价中的投影寻踪模型[A];中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第二届年会论文集(一)[C];2006年

相关硕士学位论文 前8条

1 王健;滏阳河水资源承载力分析及优化配置研究[D];河北工程大学;2010年

2 王珊;胶东地区水资源短缺风险研究[D];济南大学;2011年

3 李洋;南水北调对受水区水资源配置效果影响评价研究[D];郑州大学;2011年

4 金冬梅;吉林省城市干旱缺水风险评价指标体系与模型研究[D];东北师范大学;2006年

5 贡力;兰州市水资源承载力研究[D];西北农林科技大学;2007年

6 周俊;鄂尔多斯陶利水源地地下水开采的植被生态风险研究[D];吉林大学;2008年

7 冯佳虹;金华市水资源模糊风险分析[D];浙江师范大学;2010年

8 塔娜;海平面上升背景下上海市水源地供水安全风险评估[D];华东师范大学;2012年



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