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个人住房贷款政策调整对房地产业的影响研究

发布时间:2018-02-14 01:21  文章来源:笔耕文化传播

  本文关键词: 个人住房贷款 市场机制 政策调整 影响效应 出处:《西南石油大学》2012年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文


【摘要】:金融政策的调控对房地产业发展的影响在许多国家的实践中已经得到证实,在我国也逐步受到重视并成为调节房地产业健康发展的重要手段。金融政策包含的范围十分广泛,其中的个人住房贷款政策对房地产业的影响尤其重大。自上世纪90年代国内开始推行个人住房贷款业务之初,我国个人住房贷款政策就开始影响业务和房地产业的发展。经过几十年的调整,个人住房贷款政策也逐步完善。自2010年10月本轮的个人住房贷款政策调整开始正式实施,市场对这次的政策调整寄予了很高的期望。 目前关于个人住房贷款与房地产业之间关系的研究较多,但大部分是关于两者的定性研究,定量分析的文章较少。本文则主要采取定量研究与定性分析相结合的方法,通过数学模型和逻辑推理得出文章结论。文章先通过建立数学模型定量研究个人住房贷款额与房地产相关要素的关系,再深入探讨个人住房贷款政策调整对房地产市场核心要素(供求、价格、成交量)和房地产市场参与主体(购房者、房地产开发企业)的影响,最后提出相应的政策建议。文章主要选取1998—2011年我国个人住房贷款额度与房地产相关经济指标,利用计量经济学中的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验分析个人住房贷款额度与房地产相关因素的关系。在定量的基础上深入分析个人住房贷款政策调整对我国房地产业的影响效应。主要从四个方面论述,即政策调整对房地产价格的影响、对房地产供求机制的影响、对房地产竞争机制的影响、对房地产风险机制的影响,得出了个人住房贷款政策调整在平抑房价、土地供应、引导房企、资金投入等方面对房地产业都有显著影响的结论。最后提出促进房地产行业健康平稳发展的政策建议,如深化个人住房贷款政策调控,建立健全房地产市场调控的长效机制,使房地产市场逐步走向规范化、制度化,共建和谐稳定的房地产信贷市场等。
[Abstract]:The influence of financial policy on the development of real estate industry has been proved in the practice of many countries. In our country, it has been paid more and more attention and become an important means to regulate the healthy development of real estate industry. The impact of the personal housing loan policy on the real estate industry is particularly significant. Since the beginning of the implementation of the personal housing loan business in China in -10s, The personal housing loan policy of our country has begun to affect the development of business and real estate industry. After decades of adjustment, the personal housing loan policy has been gradually improved. Since October 2010, the adjustment of personal housing loan policy has been formally implemented. The market has high expectations for this policy adjustment. At present, there are many researches on the relationship between personal housing loan and real estate, but most of them are qualitative research, but there are few articles on quantitative analysis. This paper mainly adopts the method of combining quantitative research with qualitative analysis. The conclusion is drawn by mathematical model and logical reasoning. Firstly, the relationship between the amount of personal housing loan and the relevant elements of real estate is quantitatively studied by establishing a mathematical model. Furthermore, the influence of the adjustment of personal housing loan policy on the core elements of the real estate market (supply and demand, price, turnover) and the participants in the real estate market (buyers, real estate developers) is discussed. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. This paper mainly selects the personal housing loan quota and the real estate related economic indicators from 1998 to 2011. Using the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test in econometrics to analyze the relationship between the amount of personal housing loan and the related factors of real estate. On the basis of quantitative analysis, the adjustment of personal housing loan policy to real estate in China is deeply analyzed. The effect of industry. Mainly discussed from four aspects, That is, the impact of policy adjustment on real estate prices, on the real estate supply and demand mechanism, on the real estate competition mechanism, on the real estate risk mechanism, it is concluded that the adjustment of personal housing loan policy is to stabilize housing prices, land supply. The conclusion that guiding housing enterprises and capital investment has a significant impact on the real estate industry. Finally, it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry, such as deepening the regulation and control of personal housing loan policy. To establish and perfect the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation and control, to make the real estate market move towards standardization and institutionalization, and to build a harmonious and stable real estate credit market.
【学位授予单位】:西南石油大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F293.3;F832.4

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