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基于空间面板杜宾模型的我国城镇化、产业结构与能源消费研究

发布时间:2019-01-07 09:44  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:城镇化及产业结构调整升级是社会经济发展的必然结果,现阶段我国城镇化和产业结构升级正处于快速发展时期,对能源资源需求强劲,能源过度消耗所造成的能源资源压力及环境污染问题也将持续增加,在全球能源资源短缺、环境污染问题日益严峻的背景下,这些均给能源资源可持续和生态环境安全造成巨大的压力。城镇化、产业结构调整对能耗有两种相反的作用,如何更深入地认识城镇化及产业结构变动对能耗的影响,在积极稳妥地推进城镇化及产业结构调整和升级进程中,提高能源效率,进而降低能耗,对实现节能减排、建立资源节约型环境友好型社会具有重要意义。本文基于1995-2013年我国30省市城镇化、产业结构与能源利用效率数据构建了空间面板杜宾模型,由于经济空间权重矩阵比单单基于地理权重矩阵以及经济强度矩阵与现实情况更相符,故以下的研究结论是基于经济空间权重矩阵的时间固定、空间随机效应的空间面板杜宾模型的分析结果。实证结果表明,能源效率的Moran'I统计量均显著正值,表明能源效率在空间上具有正相关关系,表现出空间集聚。从参数估计结果来看,空间效应的系数为正值,且具有显著性;城镇化率对能源效率的效应为负,但对相邻省市能源效率的空间溢出效应为正,产业结构中第二产业比重和第三产业比重变动对能源效率产生相反的作用,同时二者对相邻省市的空间溢出效应显著为负,第二产业比重对相邻省市能源效率的空间溢出效应要显著高于第三产业。从城镇化、产业结构对能源效率的影响分解为直接效应与间接效应的结果来看,城镇化对能源效率产生显著为正的间接效应与负的直接效应;产业结构中第二产业比重对能源效率的影响最大,其直接、间接影响均显著为负;第三产业比重对能源效率的效应均显著为正,间接效应也大于直接影响,但影响系数均小于第二产业比重的影响。说明在新型城镇化建设过程中,需要大力发展新型城镇化节能环保,提高城镇化节能;加快产业结构调整、升级的步伐,提高经济发展的质量,逐步降低第二产业占比,发展能耗较低的第三产业,使得我国经济增长走出能源利用效率低的困境。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading are the inevitable results of social and economic development. At the present stage, China's urbanization and industrial structure upgrading are in a period of rapid development, with strong demand for energy and resources. The pressure of energy resources and environmental pollution caused by excessive consumption of energy will continue to increase. Under the background of the shortage of global energy resources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, All these bring great pressure to the sustainability of energy resources and ecological environment security. Urbanization and industrial structure adjustment have two opposite effects on energy consumption. How to understand the impact of urbanization and industrial structure change on energy consumption, and how to promote urbanization and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading process actively and steadily, It is of great significance to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption to realize energy saving and emission reduction and to establish a resource-conserving environment-friendly society. Based on the urbanization, industrial structure and energy efficiency data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2013, this paper constructs a spatial panel Dobbin model. Because the economic spatial weight matrix is more consistent with the reality than the geographical weight matrix and the economic intensity matrix alone, the following conclusions are based on the fixed time of the economic spatial weight matrix. The results of the spatial panel Dobbin model with random effects. The empirical results show that the Moran'I statistics of energy efficiency are significantly positive, indicating that there is a positive correlation between energy efficiency and spatial concentration. From the result of parameter estimation, the coefficient of spatial effect is positive and significant. The effect of urbanization rate on energy efficiency is negative, but the spatial spillover effect on energy efficiency of neighboring provinces and cities is positive. The change of secondary industry proportion and tertiary industry proportion in industrial structure has the opposite effect on energy efficiency. At the same time, the spatial spillover effect of them on neighboring provinces and cities was significantly negative, and the spatial spillover effect of secondary industry proportion on energy efficiency of adjacent provinces and cities was significantly higher than that of tertiary industry. From the result that the influence of urbanization and industrial structure on energy efficiency is decomposed into direct effect and indirect effect, urbanization has obvious positive indirect effect and negative direct effect on energy efficiency. In the industrial structure, the proportion of the secondary industry has the greatest impact on energy efficiency, its direct and indirect effects are significantly negative; The effect of the proportion of the tertiary industry on energy efficiency is significantly positive and the indirect effect is larger than that of the direct effect, but the influence coefficient is smaller than that of the secondary industry. It shows that in the process of new-type urbanization, it is necessary to develop new type of urbanization to save energy and environmental protection, and to improve the energy saving of urbanization. Speeding up the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, improving the quality of economic development, gradually reducing the proportion of secondary industry and developing the tertiary industry with lower energy consumption, the economic growth of our country can get out of the predicament of low energy efficiency.
【学位授予单位】:暨南大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2015
【分类号】:F299.21;F121.3;F426.2;F224

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