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人民币离岸市场与在岸市场的汇率变动关系研究

发布时间:2019-01-11 11:22
【摘要】:自2009年9月开展人民币跨境贸易结算试点,2010年8月建立香港离岸人民币市场,2013年9月上海自贸区成立以来,人民币国际化在中国政府采取了一系列积极措施后取得了显著的进步。其中,人民币离岸市场的建设对推动人民币国际化的进程起到了重要作用,人民币在岸市场和离岸市场的汇率联动也成为研究的热点话题。 目前最主要的人民币离岸市场有香港、新加坡、伦敦三个离岸市场,本文从相关概念和离岸金融市场的类型和特征的介绍开始,然后通过对人民币离岸市场和在岸市场的定性分析,再结合实证分析说明人民币离岸市场和在岸市场之间的联动关系。实证分析是本文的突出之处,主要通过对2009年7月2日到香港离岸人民币市场建立和香港人民币离岸市场建立至今两个阶段进行实证分析,主要采用的计量方法为平稳性检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,最终的结果表明:无本金交割远期市场处于人民币外汇市场的信息中心地位,对在岸人民币即期、远期价格和香港即期人民币价格、香港可交割远期价格都有较强的引导作用,香港可交割远期对在岸远期也有较强的引导作用。 针对以上第三章和第四章的分析,主要提出了四条政策建议:拓宽人民币投资渠道、多样化人民币回流渠道、加强两岸金融监管合作和完善金融法律法规,从不同的方面来维持金融市场稳定,保证人民币离岸市场健康有序地发展。另外,深化金融改革是需要长期执行的政策,进一步推动人民币利率和汇率的市场化,利率市场化和汇率市场化是相互协调、促进的,可以更加真实地反映市场上对于人民币的需求和供给,有效地杜绝市场上的套利套汇活动。
[Abstract]:Since the start of the RMB cross-border trade settlement pilot in September 2009, the establishment of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong in August 2010, and the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in September 2013, RMB internationalization has made remarkable progress after the Chinese government has taken a series of positive measures. Among them, the construction of RMB offshore market plays an important role in promoting the process of RMB internationalization, and the exchange rate linkage between onshore market and offshore market has also become a hot topic. At present, the most important offshore RMB markets are Hong Kong, Singapore and London. This article begins with the introduction of relevant concepts and the types and characteristics of offshore financial markets. Then through the qualitative analysis of RMB offshore market and onshore market, combined with empirical analysis to illustrate the linkage between RMB offshore market and onshore market. Empirical analysis is the highlight of this paper, mainly through the establishment of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong on July 2, 2009 and the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong since the establishment of the offshore market in Hong Kong on July 2, 2009. Co-integration test and Granger causality test, the final results show that the non-deliverable forward market is at the information center of the RMB foreign exchange market, for onshore RMB spot prices, forward prices and Hong Kong spot RMB prices. Hong Kong deliverable forward prices have a strong guiding role, Hong Kong deliverable forward on onshore forward also has a strong guiding role. Based on the analysis of the third and fourth chapters above, four policy suggestions are put forward: widening the RMB investment channels, diversifying the RMB return channels, strengthening cross-strait financial supervision and cooperation, and perfecting the financial laws and regulations. From different aspects to maintain the stability of the financial market, to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the RMB offshore market. In addition, deepening financial reform is a policy that needs to be implemented for a long time to further promote the marketization of RMB interest rates and exchange rates, which are coordinated and promoted by the marketization of interest rates and exchange rates. It can reflect the demand and supply of RMB more truthfully and effectively put an end to arbitrage in the market.
【学位授予单位】:华东师范大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F832.6

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