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人民币ODI与我国比较优势动态升级研究

发布时间:2019-04-15 23:44  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:随着全球经济一体化的不断深入,国际贸易在世界经济范围内所占据的地位日益重要。我国自参与国际贸易以来,一直以初始传统型比较优势参与国际分工,常年以“制造大国”在国际市场中占有一席之地。丰富的劳动力资源,低廉的劳动力成本使我国一直以初级阶段的粗放式劳动力资源密集型产业占有一定的国际市场份额,陷入了“低价锁定”的“比较优势陷阱”。进行对外直接投资,以投资产生的技术溢出学习、掌握核心技术环节、优化产业结构调整,从而打破“比较优势陷阱”,促进比较优势动态化升级。本文以人民币对外直接投资(ODI,Outward Direct Investment)对产业结构调整的影响为研究主线,以产业结构优化升级和比较优势动态升级的联动关系为基础。首先,对人民币ODI和比较优势动态升级的相关研究内容进行梳理,通过查阅大量已有文献,对二者的相关理论基础进行整理分析。其次,对二者分别进行发展现状的定性分析,对人民币ODI与我国比较优势的互动机理展开原理分析,确定影响因素和途径,其影响因素主要有三个方面:资源供给因素、市场需求因素、和其他因素。其传导途径包括四个方面:资源获取性ODI、市场获取性ODI、技术获取性ODI、资本获取性ODI。由此建立了本文的实证基础,并从中选取相应的实证变量。在定量分析方面,本文实证分析了ODI与产业结构高度化层级指标的变量关系。实证结果分析表明,长期条件下,人民币ODI是产业结构调整的格兰杰因,且对产业结构有正向促进作用。其传导途径主要依靠对外直接投资促进核心技术条件改善、外部市场容量扩大、资源配置优化合理,以此来促进产业结构优化升级,从而实现比较优势优化升级的最终目标。同时,基于VAR模型进行变量的平稳性检验,确定变量平稳后,利用脉冲响应回归分析求证两者之间的短期关系。最后,通过对比中国和日本两国的相关经济背景情况,结合日本推动比较优势动态升级的经验,从定性分析和定量分析两个方面对我国的人民币ODI促进比较优势动态化升级提出相应的政策意见。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of global economic integration, international trade plays an increasingly important role in the world economy. Since China participated in international trade, it has been participating in the international division of labor with the initial traditional comparative advantage, and has occupied a place in the international market all the year round as a "manufacturing power". Because of abundant labor resources and low labor cost, China has been occupying a certain share of international market with extensive labor resource-intensive industries in the primary stage, and has fallen into the "comparative advantage trap" of "low price locking". In order to break the trap of comparative advantage and promote the dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage, we should make direct investment abroad, learn from technology spillover from investment, master the core technology link, optimize the adjustment of industrial structure, so as to break the trap of comparative advantage. This paper focuses on the influence of ODI,Outward Direct Investment) on the adjustment of industrial structure, and takes the linkage relationship between optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage as the basis. First of all, the related research contents of dynamic upgrading of RMB ODI and comparative advantage are combed. By consulting a large number of existing literature, the relevant theoretical basis of the two is sorted out and analyzed. Secondly, qualitative analysis of the current situation of the development of the two, the interaction mechanism between RMB ODI and China's comparative advantage is analyzed in principle, and the influencing factors and approaches are determined. The influencing factors are mainly three aspects: the resource supply factor, and the resource supply factor. Market demand factors, and other factors. The transmission pathway includes four aspects: resource access ODI, market access ODI, technology acquisition ODI, capital acquisition ODI. Therefore, the empirical basis of this paper is established, and the corresponding empirical variables are selected from it. In the aspect of quantitative analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the variable relationship between ODI and the index of industrial structure elevation level. The empirical results show that under long-term conditions, RMB ODI is the Granger factor of industrial structure adjustment, and has a positive role in promoting the industrial structure. Its transmission way mainly depends on the improvement of the core technology conditions, the expansion of the external market capacity and the rational allocation of resources, so as to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, thus realizing the ultimate goal of the optimization and upgrading of the comparative advantage. At the same time, the stability test of variables is carried out based on VAR model. After the stability of variables is determined, the short-term relationship between the two variables is proved by impulse response regression analysis. Finally, by comparing the relevant economic backgrounds of China and Japan, and combining Japan's experience in promoting the dynamic upgrading of comparative advantage, From two aspects of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on promoting the dynamic upgrading of the comparative advantage of RMB ODI in China.
【学位授予单位】:南昌大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F832.6

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