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基于实物期权理论的农业企业并购投资决策研究

发布时间:2018-12-27 10:12
【摘要】:在市场竞争日趋激烈的今天,并购是企业增强自身竞争力,实现自身发展的重要方法。作为企业的一项长远战略投资,并购的决策过程具有很大的不确定性与不可逆性,传统的企业并购决策往往忽视了这些不确定性和不可逆性,进而导致其决策不是最优的。实物期权注重对投资决策的不确定性进行管理,将实物期权方法引入企业并购决策中,有助于帮助企业决策者进行正确全面的分析问题,作出最佳的决策。 本文首先对农业企业的概念、特征等方面进行了简介,然后对传统的企业并购决策理论进行了概述,详细的介绍了并购的概念、形式、动因以及现金流量贴现法、时点价值评估法、相当价值评估法等传统并购价值评估的方法,并对它们进行了横向的比较,指出各种方法的优点和不足,为将实物期权方法引进企业并购决策中的必要性打下了现实基础。然后详细介绍了期权和实物期权的概念及分类,实物期权的特点和作用,为将实物期权方法引进企业并购决策中的必要性打下了理论基础。接着对企业并购中的实务期权特征进行了分析,证明把实物期权方法引进企业并购决策中具有可行性。接着介绍了如何利用实物期权的方法对企业并购进行价值评估、风险管理和战略管理。最后在一个案例对农业企业并购决策进行了实物期权方法的运用。 由于企业并购决策具有灵活性,标的资产价值具有波动性,并购的风险和收益具有不对称性,并购过程包含着多种实物期权,而传统企业并购投资决策方法隐含着一系列理想化的假设,认为投资环境是确定的,投资成本是可逆的,投资收益率是可预测的,进而企业可以采取刚性的决策准则,忽略了企业投资环境的复杂性,技术、市场的不确定性以及投资的不可逆性,因此传统的企业并购决策理论都不能很好的指导企业并购决策。而以实物期权理论为基础的企业并购投资决策,将金融期权方法应用于项目投资实践,投资不确定性以及投资成本的不可逆性得到充分考虑,使得决策者通过延时决策最大化企业价值。本文的研究一定程度上更新了传统的投资决策观念,为企业战略投资者和高层管理人员提供了理论基础和新的思路。
[Abstract]:In the increasingly fierce market competition, M & A is an important method for enterprises to enhance their own competitiveness and achieve their own development. As a long-term strategic investment of enterprises, the decision-making process of M & A has great uncertainty and irreversibility. The traditional decision of M & A often ignores these uncertainties and irreversibility, which leads to the decision is not optimal. Real options pay attention to the uncertainty management of investment decision. It is helpful to help the decision makers to analyze the problem correctly and comprehensively and make the best decision by introducing the real option method into the M & A decision. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of agricultural enterprises are introduced, then the traditional theory of M & A decision is summarized, and the concept, form, motivation and cash flow discount method of M & A are introduced in detail. Time point value evaluation method, equivalent value evaluation method and other traditional M & A valuation methods are compared horizontally, and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods are pointed out. It lays a realistic foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into M & A decision. Then, the concept and classification of option and real option are introduced in detail, and the characteristics and functions of real option are introduced in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for the necessity of introducing real option method into enterprise M & A decision. Then it analyzes the characteristics of practical options in M & A, and proves that it is feasible to introduce the real option method into M & A decision. Then it introduces how to use real options to evaluate the value of M & A, risk management and strategic management. Finally, in a case, the real option method is applied to agribusiness M & A decision. Because of the flexibility of enterprise M & A decision, the volatility of the underlying asset value, the asymmetry of the risks and benefits of M & A, the process of M & A includes many real options. However, a series of idealized assumptions are implied in the traditional decision-making method of M & A investment, which holds that the investment environment is determined, the investment cost is reversible, the investment return rate is predictable, and the firm can adopt rigid decision criteria. The complexity of enterprise investment environment, the uncertainty of technology, market and the irreversibility of investment are ignored, so the traditional decision theory of M & A can not guide the decision of M & A. Based on the real option theory, the financial option method is applied to the project investment practice, the uncertainty of investment and the irreversibility of investment cost. It makes the decision maker maximize the enterprise value through the delay decision. To some extent, the research in this paper has updated the traditional concept of investment decision-making and provided a theoretical basis and a new way of thinking for strategic investors and senior managers.
【学位授予单位】:中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F324;F271

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