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倒计时信号灯对非机动车穿越行为的影响分析

发布时间:2019-01-12 17:49
【摘要】:倒计时信号灯作为越来越为普遍的进行交通管控的一种方式,其影响效果研究却并不透彻,尤其对于非机动车的影响效果研究甚少。本文为了充实倒计时对于非机动车影响效果的研究,创新性的将红灯时长进行划分,具体而详细地研究在每个时间段内倒计时对于非机动车的影响效果,通过实地调研收集数据,进行有无倒计时下相关交通行为的对比;应用数学建模分析倒计时对于穿越行为的影响作用,以及比较有无倒计时下影响穿越行为的主要因素。具体研究内容包括:(1)有无倒计时条件下参照行人,对非机动车的违规行为比较研究。将实地调研收集到的数据,应用简单的数理统计方法,在有、无倒计时两种情境下,将红灯区间分成黄灯、中间稳定区间、早启动区间分别研究行人和非机动车的违规情况针对。结果发现,在整个红灯区间内倒计时信号灯能有效降低行人的违规率但对于非机动车违规率影响并不显著;倒计时对于行人来说,在黄灯区间及早启动区间均能显著降低其违规率,在中间区间影响不显著;而对于非机动车来说,在三个区间内倒计时对其违规率影响均不显著。进一步,比较了有无倒计时下行人和非机动车的细微行为差异,结果表明倒计时信号灯下的样本表现的更趋于放松,且倒计时对于行人及非机动车细微行为的影响效果也略有不同。(2)应用Logit回归方法建立行为模型,对有无倒计时下影响穿越行为的因素进行探究。研究有无倒计时下不考虑早启动的合规、机会主义、冒险主义行为的差异,结果表明,倒计时信号灯下骑行者不等待的冒险行为会减少,等待者也更愿意遵守规则。比较了有无倒计时下早启动行为的差异,结果表明倒计时会显著增加非机动车的早启动行为。进一步研究还表明有无倒计时下不同区间内的穿越行为影响因素并不完全相同,倒计时下影响穿越行为的因素明显少于无倒计时情形。(3)研究倒计时对于非机动车的等待时间影响。应用生存分析法探究非机动车的等待时间分布规律,应用Cox建模,在不考虑早启动行为及针对早启动样本两种情况下分析影响等待时间的影响因素。结果表明在不考虑早启动时,发现有无倒计时对于非机动车的等待时间影响不显著;但对早启动样本,倒计时会显著增加其早启动的风险,降低等待时间。并且,倒计时下影响等待时间的因素明显少于无倒计时下的。
[Abstract]:As a more and more common way of traffic control, the effect of countdown signal lamp is not thoroughly studied, especially for non-motor vehicle. In order to enrich the research on the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle, this paper innovatively divides the length of red light, and studies the effect of countdown on non-motor vehicle in detail in each time period. Collect the data through the field investigation, carry on the correlation traffic behavior under the countdown or not; The effect of countdown on traversing behavior was analyzed by mathematical modeling, and the main factors influencing traversal behavior were compared with or without countdown. The main contents are as follows: (1) comparison of non-motor vehicle violations with reference to pedestrians with or without countdown. With the data collected from the field investigation and application of simple mathematical statistical methods, the red light areas are divided into yellow lights with a stable interval in the middle of the red light region under the two situations of having or not countdown. The early start interval is used to study the violation of pedestrian and non-motor vehicle respectively. The results show that the countdown signal can effectively reduce the pedestrian violation rate in the whole red light range, but has no significant effect on the non-motor vehicle violation rate. For pedestrians, the early start of the yellow light interval can significantly reduce the violation rate, but not in the middle section, but for non-motor vehicles, the countdown in the three zones has no significant impact on the violation rate. Furthermore, the nuances between pedestrians and non-motor vehicles with or without countdown were compared, and the results showed that the samples under the countdown signal were more relaxed. The effect of countdown on the subtle behavior of pedestrians and non-motor vehicles is also slightly different. (2) Logit regression method is used to establish the behavior model to explore the factors that affect the traversing behavior under countdown or not. Whether there is any difference between early startup compliance, opportunism and adventurism without considering the countdown, the results show that the risk-taking behavior of the cyclist who does not wait under the countdown signal will be reduced, and the waiting person will be more willing to obey the rules. The results show that countdown can significantly increase the early start behavior of non-motor vehicles. Further studies have shown that the factors affecting the traversing behavior in different intervals with or without countdown are not exactly the same. The factors influencing the traversing behavior under countdown are obviously less than those without countdown. (3) the effect of countdown on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles is studied. The distribution of waiting time of non-motorized vehicles was studied by means of survival analysis, and the influence factors of waiting time were analyzed by using Cox model without considering the behavior of early start and the sample of early start. The results show that the countdown has no significant effect on the waiting time of non-motor vehicles without considering the early start, but the countdown can significantly increase the risk of early start and reduce the waiting time for early start samples. Moreover, the factors influencing the waiting time under countdown were significantly less than those without countdown.
【学位授予单位】:北京交通大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:U491

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