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面向低碳经济的主动配电网综合资源规划与决策理论

发布时间:2018-09-14 17:07  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:电力系统的低碳化转型是应对全球气候变化、推动低碳经济、实现能源可持续发展的核心战略。作为智能电网发展到高级阶段的产物,主动配电网(Active Distribution Network, ADN)有机整合了信息通信、电力电子及智能控制等技术,为促进分布式可再生能源大规模并网与高效利用提供了一种有效解决方案。本文以绿色能源主动消纳作为切入点,通过分析ADN的技术内涵、关键要素与实现原理,基于“一点,二面,三主线”三位一体的总体思路,深入系统地研究了面向低碳经济的ADN规划理论与决策方法,为加快我国配用电系统低碳化发展提供可靠的理论依据。本文主要工作归纳如下:首先,从ADN资源构成入手,分析总结了微型燃气轮机、风力发电、太阳能光伏以及储能等分布式能源的技术特性及其通用稳态模型;重点探讨了价格型和激励型两种触发机制下需求响应资源的可控性及其对可再生能源利用的作用影响;基于不同资源之间的互补性,并综合考虑技术成熟度、投资成本及系统可靠性要求,对低碳背景下ADN的资源集成模式及其适用意义进行了探讨;针对需求响应机制的不确定性,提出了一种适应大数据环境的改进模糊C均值智能分类辨识算法,为ADN下对负荷响应潜力的精确分析提供了有效方法。基于所建立的资源集成模式,以传统配电网及微电网为参照,提出了面向可再生能源高效利用的ADN规划的总体思路和实施流程;从数学角度对投资决策与低碳效益之间耦合关系进行了深刻剖析,全方位地揭示了ADN下影响可再生能源规模化利用的时空阻滞因素及其作用机理;针对上述多方面因素的不确定性,提出了复杂预想场景集的概念及基于Taguchi正交测试的冗余信息约减策略;在此基础上,考虑主动网络管理机制的作用潜力,构建了促进可再生能源高效利用的ADN双层场景规划模型,并对不同规划模式下的系统经济成本与低碳效益进行了比较分析。针对传统配电网向ADN的低碳化过渡问题,提出了兼容需求响应的ADN综合资源规划模式及其方法。立足于价格型需求响应机制,通过分析智能电表渗透率与负荷节点响应能力之间的关系,并考虑负荷复原与渐退效应的影响,建立了客观描述实时电价信号下节点负荷响应特性的新型复合模型;针对低碳因素存在域多时间尺度问题,创新性地提出了基于“积分投影”的二阶段建模思路;在此基础上,结合考虑可再生能源发电和需求响应两方面的不确定性,进一步详细构建了面向低碳化过渡的ADN二阶段机会约束模型。采用智能混合算法实现求解,深入地揭示了需求响应对于缓解可再生发电负荷反调节特性所导致低碳阻滞问题的重要作用。然后,以非合作博弈理论为基础,研究了电力市场环境下的ADN规划问题。考虑放松管制和节能服务两种市场背景,分别分析了市场格局和参与主体变化对ADN投资运营模式的影响,并探讨了市场环境下协调规划决策的必要性及其基本框架。从可再生能源利用与不同主体利益之间的内在联系出发,提出了市场环境下以低碳为目标的ADN双层协调规划模型;针对传统计算方法存在的不足,设计了人工蜂群算法与列文伯格-马夸尔特法相结合的智能寻优策略,用以高效求解上述问题;以河北省某实际配电系统为例,验证了所提方法的有效性,并揭示了市场环境下电价及碳税机制对ADN低碳化发展的重要影响。最后,本文研究了低碳经济背景下的ADN投资决策方法。从ADN的低碳特征能力入手,利用系统动力学原理深刻揭示了ADN低碳效益的形成机制;在此基础上,综合考虑经济、技术以及环境等多维属性,从全寿命周期角度构建了低碳经济下ADN规划综合评价指标体系;针对市场环境下的多元投资格局以及不同目标之间的主从逻辑差异,提出了低碳ADN分级决策模型及基于协调局势的求解算法;针对我国某ADN示范工程进行应用,为科学制定投资方案提出了必要建议。
[Abstract]:The low-carbon transformation of power system is the core strategy to cope with the global climate change, promote the low-carbon economy and realize the sustainable development of energy. As the product of the development of smart grid, Active Distribution Network (ADN) integrates information communication, power electronics and intelligent control technologies to promote distribution. Based on the analysis of the technical connotation, key elements and implementation principle of ADN, and the overall idea of trinity of "one point, two sides, three main lines", this paper deeply and systematically studies A facing low-carbon economy. DN planning theory and decision-making methods provide reliable theoretical basis for accelerating the development of low-carbon distribution system in China. The main work of this paper is summarized as follows: First, starting from the composition of ADN resources, the technical characteristics and general steady-state model of distributed energy such as micro-gas turbine, wind power generation, solar photovoltaic and energy storage are analyzed and summarized. It focuses on the controllability of demand response resources and their impact on renewable energy utilization under price-based and incentive-based triggering mechanisms. Based on the complementarity of different resources and considering the technical maturity, investment cost and system reliability requirements, the resource integration model and its application of ADN under low-carbon background are discussed. Aiming at the uncertainty of demand response mechanism, an improved fuzzy C-means intelligent classification and identification algorithm for large data environment is proposed, which provides an effective method for accurate analysis of load response potential under ADN. The overall idea and implementation process of ADN planning for high-efficiency utilization of renewable energy are presented; the coupling relationship between investment decision-making and low-carbon benefits is analyzed mathematically, and the time-space blocking factors and their mechanism of large-scale utilization of renewable energy under ADN are revealed in an all-round way. The concept of complex scenario set and redundant information reduction strategy based on Taguchi orthogonal test are proposed. On this basis, considering the potential of active network management mechanism, an ADN bilevel scenario planning model for promoting the efficient utilization of renewable energy is constructed, and the system economic cost under different planning modes is also discussed. Low-carbon benefits are compared and analyzed. Aiming at the problem of low-carbon transition from traditional distribution network to ADN, an ADN integrated resource planning model and its method compatible with demand response are proposed. Under the influence of the effect, a new composite model is established to describe the load response characteristics of nodes under the real-time electricity price signal objectively; aiming at the multi-time scale problem of low-carbon factors, a two-stage modeling method based on "integral projection" is innovatively proposed; on this basis, both renewable energy generation and demand response are considered. With respect to uncertainty, a two-stage chance-constrained model of ADN for low-carbon transition is constructed in detail. An intelligent hybrid algorithm is used to solve the problem, which reveals the important role of demand response in alleviating the low-carbon retardation caused by the anti-regulation characteristics of renewable generation load. Considering deration of deregulation and energy-saving service, this paper analyzes the influence of market pattern and participant change on ADN investment and operation mode, and discusses the necessity and basic framework of coordinated planning and decision-making under market environment. In view of the shortcomings of traditional calculation methods, an intelligent optimization strategy combining artificial bee colony algorithm with Levenberg-Marquart method is designed to solve the above problems efficiently. A practical distribution system in Hebei Province is taken as an example. Finally, this paper studies the ADN investment decision-making method under the background of low-carbon economy. Starting from the low-carbon characteristic capability of ADN, the low-carbon benefit of ADN is profoundly revealed by the principle of system dynamics. On this basis, considering the multi-dimensional attributes of economy, technology and environment, the comprehensive evaluation index system of ADN planning in low-carbon economy is constructed from the perspective of life cycle. In view of the multi-investment pattern in the market environment and the logical differences between different objectives, a low-carbon ADN hierarchical decision-making model and its basis are proposed. The algorithm for solving the coordinated situation is presented, and some necessary suggestions are put forward for the scientific formulation of the investment scheme for the application of an ADN demonstration project in China.
【学位授予单位】:华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:TM73


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