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山区高墩桥梁建设期风险评估

发布时间:2019-01-12 17:41  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:中国高速公路经过本世纪第一个十年的高速发展,进入了新的发展阶段。随着东部沿海地区国家高速公路网络建设基本成型,高速公路的建设转入国家中西部地区,进入山岭重丘复杂的地形区域。为了跨越复杂地形地貌,山区高墩桥梁大量修建,由于山区特殊地形、地貌、水文、地质、气候条件,使得山区高墩桥梁施工难度大,建设周期长,现场隐患多。频繁发生的山区高墩桥梁施工事故,造成了巨大的财产损失与人员伤亡,引起了国家相关部门的高度重视。本文围绕山区高墩桥梁建设期间的风险评估开展研究,主要成果如下:1.研究了山区高墩桥梁建设期风险评估理论,探讨了风险的概念、风险的相关特征以及风险评估的基本原理。2.通过对各种风险评估方法进行分析研究,探讨了层次分析法、加速遗传算法。针对层次分析法中判断矩阵的一致性检验计算过程繁琐复杂、遗传算法中的早熟收敛、后期收敛速度慢及精度差等问题。本文提出了基于加速遗传算法的层次分析法(AGA-AHP)计算风险层次模型中各风险因素重要性排序权值和检验判断矩阵的一致性,以此为基础,运用模糊数学理论形成一个基于不完整信息的多层次模糊综合评价法,量化各风险因素的风险大小。结合三种方法的优点,使整个风险评估过程更为客观,最大减小风险评估系统中的人为主观的影响,同时直观表现各风险因素的重要程度,将相应的指标量化,让评估结果明确。3.将层次分析法、加速遗传算法、模糊综合评价法三者结合起来的综合风险评估方法实际应用于山区桥梁高墩建设期风险评估,以厦门至成都国家高速公路湖南境内某特大桥为工程背景选取桥墩建设过程作为山区高墩桥梁建设期风险评估的专项示例,收集工程相关信息,分析工程潜在风险因素、进行风险识别,运用层次分析法建立风险层次模型,结合加速遗传算法计算风险因素重要性权值wi及一致性检验,最后结合模糊理论划分风险等级评价集,以重要性权值wi为基础计算出各风险因素风险等级隶属度P(i),最终确定该大桥高墩建设期的风险等级为“四等风险”。其风险评估结果证明该综合评估方法能有效反映桥墩建设期间的各风险因素隶属层次关系,正确评估高墩建设期间的风险状态,为后续风险决策提供了理论依据。同时也验证了该评估方法的有效性与实用性,对山区高墩桥梁风险评估有着实用意义。
[Abstract]:After the rapid development in the first ten years of this century, the expressway in China has entered a new stage of development. With the formation of the national highway network in the eastern coastal areas, the highway construction has been transferred to the central and western regions of the country, and into the complex terrain area of the mountains and hills. In order to span the complex terrain and geomorphology, a large number of bridges with high piers are built in mountainous areas. Due to the special terrain, geomorphology, hydrology, geology and climate conditions, the construction of high pier bridges in mountainous areas is difficult, the construction period is long, and there are many hidden dangers on the spot. The frequent construction accidents of high-pier bridges in mountainous areas have caused huge property losses and casualties, which have aroused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. This paper focuses on the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas. The main results are as follows: 1. This paper studies the theory of risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, discusses the concept of risk, the related characteristics of risk and the basic principle of risk assessment. 2. Through the analysis and research of various risk assessment methods, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is discussed to accelerate the genetic algorithm (GA). In order to solve the problems such as complicated calculation process of consistency checking of judgement matrix in AHP, premature convergence in genetic algorithm, slow convergence speed and poor precision in late stage, etc. In this paper, an accelerated genetic algorithm based Analytic hierarchy process (AGA-AHP) is proposed to calculate the consistency of the ranking weight and the test judgment matrix of the importance of each risk factor in the risk hierarchy model. A multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on incomplete information is formed by using fuzzy mathematics theory to quantify the risk of each risk factor. Combined with the advantages of the three methods, the whole process of risk assessment is more objective, and the human subjective influence in the risk assessment system is minimized. At the same time, the importance of each risk factor is intuitively represented, and the corresponding indicators are quantified. Make the assessment clear. 3. The comprehensive risk assessment method, which combines AHP, accelerated genetic algorithm and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, is applied to the risk assessment of high pier construction period of mountain bridges. Taking a large bridge in Hunan Province of Xiamen to Chengdu National Expressway as a background, the process of bridge pier construction is selected as a special example for risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous area, and relevant information is collected to analyze the potential risk factors of the project. Risk identification, using AHP to establish risk hierarchy model, combining with accelerated genetic algorithm to calculate the weight of risk factor wi and consistency test, finally combined with fuzzy theory to divide the risk rating evaluation set. Based on the importance weight value (wi), the risk grade membership degree of each risk factor is calculated. Finally, the risk grade of the high pier construction period of the bridge is determined to be "fourth grade risk" by P (i),. The result of risk assessment proves that the comprehensive evaluation method can effectively reflect the subordinate relationship of various risk factors during the construction of bridge piers, correctly evaluate the risk state during the construction of high piers, and provide a theoretical basis for subsequent risk decision-making. At the same time, the effectiveness and practicability of the evaluation method are verified, which is of practical significance to the risk assessment of high pier bridges in mountainous areas.
【学位授予单位】:长沙理工大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:U445

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