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典型暴雨优选综合模型研究

发布时间:2019-01-12 18:28  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:鉴于典型暴雨在资料缺乏的中小流域水文设计时的重要性,考虑到典型暴雨本身具有灰色性、模糊性及随机性,从水文设计的安全性与样本集的整体性考虑,确定能反映暴雨特性的因子指标,采用可能度法计算各指标的权重,在典型暴雨灰加权关联度综合评价模型、典型暴雨模糊加权模式识别模型及典型暴雨贝叶斯加权评价模型三个单一模型的基础上,构建了基于贝叶斯理论的典型暴雨灰色模糊优选综合模型,以优选典型暴雨。实例应用结果表明,单一模型及综合模型均给出了选择典型暴雨的定量计算方法,得到了典型暴雨的可行性解集,弥补了传统定性选择典型暴雨主观随意性较大的不足,其中综合模型得到的可行性解集更可靠,解集中各元素的离散程度大,更便于典型暴雨的优选。
[Abstract]:In view of the importance of typical rainstorm in the hydrological design of small and medium watersheds where data are lacking, considering that the typical rainstorm itself is grey, fuzzy and random, the safety of hydrological design and the integrity of sample set are considered. The factor index which can reflect the characteristics of rainstorm is determined, and the weight of each index is calculated by the possibility method, and the comprehensive evaluation model of grey weighted correlation degree of typical rainstorm is established. On the basis of three single models of typical rainstorm fuzzy weighted pattern recognition model and typical rainstorm Bayesian weighted evaluation model, the grey fuzzy optimal comprehensive model of typical rainstorm is constructed based on Bayesian theory to select typical rainstorm. The application results show that both the single model and the comprehensive model give the quantitative calculation method for selecting typical rainstorm, and obtain the feasible solution set of typical rainstorm, which makes up for the deficiency of traditional qualitative selection of typical rainstorm with large subjective randomness. The feasible solution set obtained by the synthetic model is more reliable, and the discrete degree of each element in the solution set is large, which is more convenient for the selection of typical rainstorm.
【作者单位】: 陕西省地质调查中心;武警水电第一支队;
【分类号】:TV125


本文编号:2408069


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