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基于演化范式的金融危机形成机理研究

发布时间:2018-08-27 15:10  文章来源:笔耕文化传播
【摘要】:2008年爆发的美国金融危机是自20世纪30年代"大萧条"以来最严重的经济危机,它使全世界的经济发生了严重的衰退。2009年,美国金融危机调查委员会公布了《金融危机调查报告》,报告认为,导致系统性金融危机的首要原因是社会普遍缺失对人性弱点的问责机制。2010年,C.M.莱因哈特和K.S.罗格夫撰写了《这次不一样:八百年金融危机史》一书,将历史上历次金融危机的原因归结到人的本性,书中指出人的贪婪与破坏性的原动力总会在一个时期后突破理性的控制,能量在被破坏性地释放之后,才会回归于相对的宁静与繁荣。本文正是在上述的背景下开始了对金融危机理论的探讨,试图回答这样的问题:导致金融危机的人性的弱点是什么?它们的内在机制又是什么?该如何进行干预?本文在研究导致金融危机的人性的弱点及其内在机制的过程中发现,演化范式的思想和方法比较适合研究上述的问题。演化范式主要借鉴达尔文的生物进化思想,并且融合了神经经济学、认知经济学和行为经济学的研究成果,以更接近客观实际的、动态的分析方式来分析和理解经济活动和金融活动,找到经济活动和金融活动的内在机制。演化分析属于模糊分析范畴,它无法准确预测经济系统的运行,也并不试图为经济系统运行轨迹提供定量描述和预测,而是依据生物进化的思想建立一种科学观察和理解经济系统运行逻辑的全新的分析框架。本文尝试基于演化范式来分析金融危机形成的机理,同时基于行为金融学的研究成果,更接近实际地理解金融危机形成的内在机制,并从中找到干预金融危机的办法。用演化范式来分析金融危机是一种很有意义的尝试。第一章金融危机形成的理论及研究文献述评。首先,以代表金融危机发展进程的四种类型——外债危机、银行危机、货币危机和系统性金融危机——为线索,梳理了代表性金融危机形成的理论,并对其不足进行评论。其次,以金融系统层级的四种角度——行为主体、金融工具、金融制度和金融环境——为线索,梳理了金融危机形成的研究文献,并对其不足进行了评论。第二章演化范式对金融危机形成理论的借鉴。首先介绍演化范式的由来和发展,其次介绍了演化范式的基本假设和主要方法,然后介绍了演化范式的分析框架,最后分析了演化范式在行为主体假设和分析方式上对金融危机形成理论的补充作用。第三章金融危机形成机理:演化范式的理论分析。首先,文章分析的是金融危机形成的遗传机制,结合经济人假设得出经济和金融活动的生物性基因是行为主体的决策模式,结合丹尼尔·卡纳曼的双系统决策模型(人类的大脑中拥有一个高效的特定的自动决策系统和一个相对低效的普适的受控决策系统共同对信息进行加工和处理)得出行为主体的现实决策模式是双系统决策模式,基于双系统决策模型进一步推出金融危机形成的生物性基因是非理性决策模式,结合纳尔逊和温特的思想得出金融危机形成的社会性基因是非理性决策惯例。然后,分析了金融危机形成的变异机制,结合纳尔逊和温特的思想得出金融危机形成的变异机制就是非理性决策惯例的转型。最后,分析了适者生存的择优进化机制,创建了金融危机形成的演化模型,该模型既反映了金融危机形成的诱致性因素——非理性决策惯例,又反映了金融危机形成的各种影响因素之间相互转换和共同演化的动态循环机制,并按照此模型演绎了金融泡沫形成和金融泡沫崩溃的演化机制和演化过程。第四章金融危机形成机理:演化范式的案例分析。本章分别列举了由遗传基因诱致的金融危机不断复制的案例、由基因变异因素诱致的金融危机类型不断变换的案例、由择优进化因素诱致的金融危机救助、纠偏、防范的案例,进一步验证金融危机的演化机理。虽然人类会在每次危机后都会制定新的危机防范措施,但由于存在难以克服的非理性的遗传基因及基因变异,新的金融危机仍会爆发,人们也会不断地积累经验,克服弱点,在防范和应对金融危机中不断发展进化。第五章研究结论与对策建议。首先,对金融危机形成的演化分析进行归纳和总结,得出非理性决策模式是诱致金融危机形成的重要因素,非理性决策模式的生物性特征决定了金融危机是不可避免的,非理性决策惯例是非理性决策模式的社会性表现,非理性决策惯例来自于金融系统的过度刺激,不同金融系统的刺激方式衍生出不同的金融危机类型,完善稳定的经济和金融制度是防范金融危机形成的有效机制等结论。然后,提出了增加金融活动中非理性决策和行为的预警信号,市场与政府二元调节机制优化组合的制度化解决方案,完善制衡市场和政府非理性决策和行为的金融监管制度等对策建议。本文的创新点是:第一,建立了金融危机形成的演化分析模型,该模型较好地揭示了金融危机形成的内在机制,反映了金融危机形成的各种影响因素之间相互转换和共同演化的动态循环机制,为更接近实际地理解金融危机形成的动态机制提供了一种可能;同时,以双系统决策模式作为逻辑起点的演化分析模型可以将以"理性人"为逻辑起点的新古典经济学和以"有限理性"或"非理性"为逻辑起点的非主流经济学融为一体。第二,基于双系统决策模型推出了金融危机形成的生物性遗传机制,即非理性决策模式,为金融危机形成的非理性诱致因素找到了更为科学的内在机制;同时,基于非理性决策模式的生物性特点得出金融危机是不可避免的结论,帮助人们正确认识和对待金融危机;第三,提出了增加金融活动中非理性决策和行为的预警信号,市场与政府二元调节机制优化组合的制度化解决方案,完善制衡市场和政府非理性决策和行为的金融监管制度等对策建议。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in 2008 in the United States is the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. It caused a serious recession in the world economy. In 2009, the Financial Crisis Survey Commission published the Financial Crisis Survey Report, which argued that the primary cause of the systemic financial crisis was the widespread lack of society. In 2010, C.M. Reinhart and K. It is against this background that this paper begins to explore the theory of financial crisis, trying to answer such questions: what are the human weaknesses that lead to the financial crisis, what are their internal mechanisms, and how to intervene? This paper studies the financial crisis. In the process of the weakness of the human nature of machine and its internal mechanism, it is found that the idea and method of evolutionary paradigm are more suitable for studying the above-mentioned problems. Evolutionary analysis belongs to the category of fuzzy analysis. It can not accurately predict the operation of the economic system, nor does it attempt to provide quantitative description and prediction for the trajectory of the economic system. This paper attempts to analyze the mechanism of financial crisis formation based on evolutionary paradigm, and to understand the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation based on behavioral finance research results, and to find ways to intervene in financial crisis. The first chapter is a review of the theories and research literature on the formation of financial crises. Firstly, it combs out the theories on the formation of representative financial crises based on the clues of four types representing the development process of financial crises: external debt crisis, banking crisis, monetary crisis and systemic financial crisis. Secondly, based on the four levels of the financial system - actors, financial instruments, financial institutions and financial environment - this paper combs the research literature on the formation of financial crisis, and comments on its shortcomings. Chapter II Evolutionary Paradigm is a reference to the theory of financial crisis formation. The origin and development of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. The basic assumptions and main methods of the evolutionary paradigm are introduced. Then the analytical framework of the evolutionary paradigm is introduced. Finally, the complementary effect of the evolutionary paradigm on the theory of financial crisis formation is analyzed. Chapter 2 analyzes the genetic mechanism of financial crisis, and concludes that the biological gene of economic and financial activities is the decision-making model of the agent, combined with Daniel Kanaman's two-system decision-making model (the human brain has an efficient and specific automatic decision-making system and a relatively inefficient and universal acceptance) It is concluded that the real decision-making mode of the actors is a two-system decision-making mode. Based on the two-system decision-making model, the biological gene of the financial crisis is further deduced as an irrational decision-making mode. Then, the paper analyzes the variation mechanism of the financial crisis and concludes that the variation mechanism of the financial crisis is the transformation of the irrational decision-making conventions by combining Nelson and Winter's ideas. Finally, the paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of the survival of the fittest and establishes the evolution model of the financial crisis, which reflects gold. The non-rational decision-making convention, which is the inducing factor of the financial crisis, also reflects the dynamic cycle mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors of the financial crisis, and deduces the evolution mechanism and process of the formation and collapse of the financial bubble according to this model. This chapter enumerates the cases of repeated financial crises caused by genetic mutations, the cases of changing types of financial crises caused by genetic mutations, and the cases of financial crises relief, correction and prevention induced by preferential evolutionary factors. Human beings will formulate new crisis prevention measures after each crisis, but because of the existence of unconquerable irrational genetic and genetic mutations, new financial crises will still break out, people will continue to accumulate experience, overcome weaknesses, and constantly evolve in the prevention and response to financial crises. Chapter 5 Research conclusions and Countermeasures First of all, the paper summarizes the evolution of the financial crisis and concludes that irrational decision-making mode is an important factor to induce the formation of the financial crisis. The biological characteristics of irrational decision-making mode determine that the financial crisis is inevitable. Conventions come from the over-stimulation of the financial system, different types of financial crisis are derived from the stimulation of different financial systems, and the conclusion is that perfecting the stable economic and financial system is an effective mechanism to prevent the formation of financial crisis. The innovation of this paper is as follows: Firstly, an evolutionary analysis model of financial crisis formation is established, which reveals the internal mechanism of financial crisis formation and reflects the financial crisis. The dynamic cyclic mechanism of mutual transformation and co-evolution among the various influencing factors provides a possibility for a closer understanding of the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the financial crisis. At the same time, the evolutionary analysis model based on the Bi-system decision-making model can be used to analyze the neo-classical economics and the neo-classical economics based on the logical starting point of "rational man". Non-mainstream economics with "bounded rationality" or "irrationality" as its logical starting point is integrated. Secondly, based on the Bi-system decision-making model, the biological genetic mechanism of financial crisis formation, i.e. the irrational decision-making model, has found a more scientific internal mechanism for the irrational inducing factors of financial crisis formation. The biological characteristics of the model come to the conclusion that financial crisis is inevitable, and help people correctly understand and deal with the financial crisis; thirdly, put forward to increase the warning signal of irrational decision-making and behavior in financial activities, market and government dual regulation mechanism optimization combination of institutionalized solutions, improve the checks and balances of the market and government irrational decision-making. Financial supervision system of policy and behavior.
【学位授予单位】:东北师范大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2016
【分类号】:F831.59


本文编号:2207653


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