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低碳经济背景下的中国能源安全战略研究

发布时间:2018-09-03 07:31
【摘要】:低碳经济是人类社会继农业文明、工业文明之后的又一重大进步。在后国际金融危机时期,低碳经济、低碳技术、近零排放日益受到世界各国的关注,正成为新一轮世界经济的增长点和竞争点。低碳经济已成为各国科技和产业发展战略的重要突破口。但由于发展模式等方面的原因,中国是世界上碳排放最多的国家,人均二氧化碳排放量和单位GDP碳排放强度均处于世界前列。日益增多的碳排放已经严重威胁着国民经济持续发展和生态文明建设。从根本上来说,碳排放问题是能源利用问题。中国能源利用效率和世界先进水平之间依然存在着极大的差距。同时,能源资源的供不应求状况也越来越严重,能源资源的总量约束也越加明显。在发展低碳经济已经成为世界发展主流情况下,对中国来说,抓住向低碳经济转型的契机,是一次推动能源结构转型的战略选择。因此,深入研究低碳经济条件下的能源安全观,分析中国能源安全面临的国际国内形势以及存在的主要问题,需调整能源战略,选择科学的能源发展战略,引导中国国民经济朝着可持续、低碳的方向理性发展,提出保障中国能源安全发展的战略对策显得尤为必要。本文以可持续发展理论、能源经济学、产业经济学、低碳经济学、战略管理理论、现代数学的理论为支撑,以低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略和政策为研究对象,综合运用了比较、实证、计量经济学和模糊评价等方法,对该选题开展了深入研究。对能源安全战略和政策进行研究,对战略效果进行评价,对政策内容进行分析。对能源安全战略综合评价,运用科学的分析方法,对已经付诸实施的能源安全战略所产生的效果、执行情况及其带来的各种影响等内容进行客观的、系统性的考察与评价,并最终构建低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略框架,其目的在于通过将这些信息直接或间接地反馈给战略制定者和政策执行人员,促使他们适时做出战略反应,及时调整不当的战略,废除无效的战略,改善战略执行行为,从而提高制定战略和实施战略的质量,从根本上解决中国国民经济和社会可持续发展所需要的能源数量、质量、价格和品种,这对于促进中国国民经济的快速发展和宏伟战略目标的实现,构建节约型社会、和谐社会和环境友好型社会都具有重要的战略意义。本文主要内容包括:1.中国能源安全战略评价。在对建国以来中国能源安全战略、政策进行回顾的基础上,介绍这些战略、政策的实施效果。然后,运用模糊综合评价方法对它们的实施效果进行评价。2.影响中国能源安全战略实施效果的因素分析。第一,探讨中国能源安全战略存在的问题,然后分析产生这些问题的原因。最后,以中国一次能源产业有效竞争的形成为例,分析这些问题的具体情况:利用SCP模型研究中国一次能源市场的竞争状况,分析有效竞争形成的障碍,并提出相关建议。3.低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略的支撑体系建立。首先,分析低碳经济背景下国家能源安全战略的动力机制及其作用机理;然后,构建低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略的支撑体系;最后,以形成可持续能源发展技术政策框架为例,分析低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略的支撑体系:第一步,分析能源技术政策对能源安全的保障功能,第二步,运用ARDL模型分析技术进步与中国整体能源效率、区域能源效率以及主要发达国家的能源效率之间的关系总结技术进步与中国能源效率之间的一般关系,第三步,在分析中国能源技术发展水平低下基本原因基础上建立了低碳经济背景下可持续能源发展技术政策体系。4.从经济新常态和低碳经济背景出发,建立低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略框架。首先,分析中国低碳经济发展现状。其次,总结低碳经济背景下发达国家的能源安全战略。再次,构建低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略框架。最后,以对中国新能源发展中中央和地方利益博弈的分析及建议为例,分析低碳经济背景下中国新能源安全战略:第一步,分析中央和地方政府在新能源发展中的博弈情况;第二步,运用博弈模型分析中央和地方在新能源发展中机理的博弈;第二步,对两者博弈的影响和形成原因进行分析基础上提出促使中国新能源发展的建议。本文的可能创新之处:1.利用SCP模型对一次能源市场的有效竞争进行了分析。结果表明,中国一次能源市场的结构、行为、绩效之间,已旱现出一种互动局势,但相互间的影响尚不充分。从合理调整政府管理体制,转变政府职能,建立与能源产业形成有效竞争相适应的政府管理制度、深化产权制度改革,优化产业组织结构,通过有效的资本运营改善企业经营状况、加强市场建设,形成多元化的投资主体、竞争主体和合理的价格调控管理体系、加快推进资源使用、天然气行业管理等的市场化步伐和加强有关法律法规的制订等方面给出了建议。2.从政策支撑体系,法律支撑体系、市场支撑体系、技术支撑体系、资源供给支撑体系和信息技术服务体系等方面构建了低碳经济背景下中国能源安全战略支撑体系。通过对1978-2012年间中国能源消费的碳排放的总量、结构与强度进行统计分析和特征判断,把握中国能源消费碳排放的发展演变轨迹。为把握影响中国能源消费碳排放的形成规律,选择能源效率、产业结构、技术创新和人口结构为关键变量,并通过运用VAR模型和脉冲响应分析,阐述这些因素对碳排放量的作用或影响,为更深一步理解新时期国家能源安全的历史任务、节能减排的具体现实和生态文明建设的未来方向提供直观证据。3.运用完全信息动态博弈模型分析了中央和地方在新能源政策实施中的利益博弈对新能源政策效果的影响。结论认为:地方在短期中会选择“搭便车”而在长期中会根据中央决策选择对自己最有利的决策,这使地方与中央的行为和偏好出现差异,削弱了新能源政策效果;影响地方选择的原因主要是中国财政制度和地方政府考核机制;在现阶段可通过明确中央和地方在新能源发展中职责、实现地方财权和事权统一、构建更为合理的政绩考核指标等方法使地方与中央的行为和偏好实现一致,达到提高新能源政策效果的目的,为促使中国能源结构的低碳化提供了有益的建议。
[Abstract]:Low-carbon economy is another great progress of human society after agricultural civilization and industrial civilization. In the period of post-international financial crisis, low-carbon economy, low-carbon technology and near-zero emissions have attracted more and more attention from all countries in the world and are becoming the growth point and competitive point of the new round of world economy. However, due to the development model and other reasons, China is the most carbon-emitting country in the world. The per capita carbon dioxide emissions and the intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP are in the forefront of the world. There is still a big gap between China's energy efficiency and the world's advanced level. At the same time, the shortage of energy resources is becoming more and more serious, and the total restriction of energy resources is becoming more and more obvious. The turning point of carbon economy transformation is a strategic choice to promote the transformation of energy structure. Therefore, it is necessary to study the concept of energy security under the condition of low-carbon economy, analyze the international and domestic situation faced by China's energy security and the existing major problems, adjust the energy strategy, select a scientific energy development strategy, and guide China's national economy towards the future. Sustainable, low-carbon direction of rational development, put forward to safeguard China's energy security development strategy is particularly necessary. This paper is based on sustainable development theory, energy economics, industrial economics, low-carbon economics, strategic management theory, modern mathematics theory as the support, in the context of low-carbon economy, China's energy security strategy and policy for The research object, using the methods of comparison, empirical analysis, econometrics and fuzzy evaluation, has carried out in-depth study on the selected topic. The energy security strategy and policy are studied, the strategic effect is evaluated, and the policy content is analyzed. The objective and systematic investigation and evaluation of the effects, implementation and impacts of the energy security strategy will be carried out, and finally a strategic framework for China's energy security in the context of a low-carbon economy will be constructed, with the aim of feeding this information directly or indirectly back to the strategists and policy executives. Promote them to make timely strategic response, timely adjust improper strategies, abolish ineffective strategies, improve strategic implementation behavior, thereby improving the quality of strategy formulation and implementation, and fundamentally solve the quantity, quality, price and variety of energy needed for the sustainable development of China's national economy and society, which is conducive to promoting China's national economy. The rapid development of economy and the realization of grand strategic goals are of great strategic significance in building a conservation-oriented society, a harmonious society and an environment-friendly society. The main contents of this paper include: 1. China's energy security strategy evaluation. Secondly, the paper evaluates their implementation effects by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. 2. The factors influencing the implementation effect of China's energy security strategy are analyzed. Firstly, the existing problems of China's energy security strategy are discussed, and then the causes of these problems are analyzed. Finally, the formation of effective competition in China's primary energy industry is discussed. For example, this paper analyzes the specific situation of these problems: using SCP model to study the competition situation of China's primary energy market, analyzing the obstacles of effective competition, and putting forward relevant suggestions.3. Establishing the support system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Secondly, it constructs the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. Finally, it takes the formation of a technical policy framework for sustainable energy development as an example to analyze the supporting system of China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. The first step is to analyze the safeguard function of energy technology policy on energy security. Secondly, the ARDL model is used to analyze the relationship between technological progress and China's overall energy efficiency, regional energy efficiency and energy efficiency of major developed countries. The general relationship between technological progress and China's energy efficiency is summarized. Thirdly, a low-carbon economy is established on the basis of the analysis of the basic reasons for China's low level of energy technology development. Based on the background of new normal economy and low-carbon economy, this paper establishes the strategic framework of China's energy security under the background of low-carbon economy. Firstly, it analyzes the current situation of China's low-carbon economic development. Secondly, it summarizes the energy security strategies of developed countries under the background of low-carbon economy. Finally, taking the analysis and suggestions of the game between the central and local interests in the development of China's new energy as an example, this paper analyzes China's new energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy: the first step is to analyze the game between the central and local governments in the development of new energy; the second step is to use the game model to analyze the central and local interests of China's new energy development. The second step is to put forward suggestions to promote the development of China's new energy based on the analysis of the impact and causes of the two games. There has been an interactive situation between structure, behavior and performance, but the mutual influence is still insufficient. We should rationally adjust the government management system, transform the government functions, establish a government management system suitable for the formation of effective competition with the energy industry, deepen the reform of property rights system, optimize the industrial organization structure, and improve it through effective capital operation. Suggestions are put forward in the aspects of enterprise operation, strengthening market construction, forming diversified investors, competitors and reasonable price control management system, accelerating the market-oriented pace of resource utilization, natural gas industry management, and strengthening the formulation of relevant laws and regulations. 2. Policy support system, legal support system and market support system are proposed. The support system, technology support system, resource supply support system and information technology service system have been constructed to support China's energy security strategy in the context of low-carbon economy. In order to grasp the formation law of carbon emissions affecting China's energy consumption, energy efficiency, industrial structure, technological innovation and population structure are selected as the key variables. By using VAR model and impulse response analysis, the effects of these factors on carbon emissions are expounded, so as to further understand the national energy in the new era. The historical task of safety, the concrete reality of energy conservation and emission reduction and the future direction of ecological civilization construction provide intuitive evidence. In the long run, the central government will choose the most favorable decision according to the central decision-making, which makes the behavior and preference of the local and central differences, weakening the effect of new energy policy; the main reasons for affecting the local choice are China's financial system and local government assessment mechanism; at this stage, the central and local governments can be clearly defined in the development of new energy. In order to achieve the goal of improving the effect of the new energy policy, we should unify the local financial power and administrative power, construct a more reasonable performance appraisal index, and so on.
【学位授予单位】:中国地质大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2015
【分类号】:F426.2

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